and Important Works
on Climate Science, Carbon Dioxide, and Human Influence
the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space,"
Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier, Memoires
de l'Academie Royale de Sciences, 7 569-604 (1827).
translation by William Connolley.
the Absorption and radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the
Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction,"
Magazine Series 4,
22, 169-194, 273-285 (1861).
"On radiation through the Earth's atmosphere," J. Tyndall, Phil. Mag. 4:200 (1863).
the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of
the Ground," Svante
Magazine 1896(41): 237-76 (1896).
"The greenhouse theory and planetary temperatures," Frank Very, Philosophical Magazine, 6, 16, 478.
"The Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere of the Earth," E.O. Hulburt, Physical Review 38, 1876-1890 (1931).
- calculated a CO2 climate sensitivity of 4°C.
Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on
Temperature," G. S. Callendar, Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological Society v64 Issue 275 pp 223-240 (April
"Can Carbon Dioxide Influence Climate?" G. S. Callendar, Weather 4:310 (1949).
Industry May Change Climate," New York Times, May
"Can we survive technology?" John von Neumann, Forbes, June 1955.
the article: "The carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by
industry's burning of coal and oil--more than half of it during the
last generation--may have changed the atmosphere's composition
sufficiently to account for a general warming of the world by about one
Influence of the 15μ Carbon-Dioxide Band on the Atmospheric Infra-red
Cooling Rate," G. N. Plaas, Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological Society v82 Issue 353 pp 310-324 (July
"Effect of carbon dioxide variations on climate," G. Plass, Tellus 8:140 (1956).
"Warmer Climate on the Earth May Be Due to More Carbon Dioxide in the Air," New York Times, Science in Review, Oct 28, 1956.
"Carbon Dioxide and the Climate," G. N. Plass, American Scientist, vol 44 pp 302-316 (1956). [PDF]
the start of the industrial revolution, mankind has been burning fossil
fuel (coal, oil, etc.) and adding its carbon to the atmosphere as
carbon dioxide. In 50 years or so this process, says Director Roger
Revelle of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, may have a violent
effect on the earth’s climate…"Dr.
Revelle has not reached the stage of warning against this catastrophe,
but he and other geophysicists intend to keep watching and recording.
During the International Geophysical Year (1957-58), teams of
scientists will take inventory of the earth’s CO2 and observe how it
shifts between air and sea. They will try to find out whether the CO2
blanket has been growing thicker, and what the effect has been. When
all their data have been studied, they may be able to predict whether
man’s factory chimneys and auto exhausts will eventually cause salt
water to flow in the streets of New York and London.”-- "One Big Greenhouse," Time magazine, May 28, 1956
Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an
Increase of Atmospheric CO2 During the Past Decades," Roger
Hans E. Suess, Tellus 9 pp 18-27 (1957).
the accumulation of CO2 "may becomed signficant during future decades
if industrial fuel consumption continues to rise exponentially." The
paper concludes, "Human beings are now carrying out a large-scale
geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the
past nor be reproduced in the future."
of Matter in the Sea and Atmosphere: Changes in the Carbon Dioxide
Content of the Atmoshere and Sea due to Fossil Fuel Combustion," Bert
Bolin and Erik Eriksson (1958). In The
Atmosphere and the Sea in Motion: Scientific Contributions to the
Rossby Memorial Volume (ed. B. Bolin), pp. 130-142.
Rockefeller Institute Press, New York.
Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the
Atmosphere," C. D. Keeling, Tellus 12 (1960) pp 200-203.
"On the Radiative Equilibrium and Heat Balance of the Atmosphere," Syukuro Manabe and Fritz Möller, Monthly Weather Review, 89, 503–532 (1961).
The Conservation Foundation, Implications of Rising Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere (New York: The Conservation Foundation, 1963).
Weart, p. 44:
"They issued a report suggesting that the doubling of CO2 projected for
the next century could raise the world's temperature by 4°C (more than 6°F).
They warned that this could be harmful; for example, it could cause
glaciers to melt and raise the sea level so that coastlines would get
A 1965 report to the Johnson
Administration had a chapter on CO2’s potential to cause warming:
“Restoring the Quality of Our
Environment,” Report of the Environmental Pollution
Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee (1965), pp. 111-133.
"Influence of economic activity on climate," M.I. Budyko, O.A. Drosdov and M.I. Yudin, Modern Problems of Climatology (Collection of Articles), FTD-HT-23-1338-67, Foreign Tech. Div., Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, 484-500 (1966).
Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative
Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald, Journal of the Atmospheric
Sciences, v24 n3 (May 1967) pp 241-259. Their model finds a
climate sensitivity of 2.3 C.
"The Effect of Solar Radiation Variations on the Climate of the Earth,"
M. I. Budyko, Tellus vol 21 issue 5, pp. 611-619 (1969).
"A Global Climatic Model Based on the Energy Balance of the
Earth-Atmosphere System," William D. Sellers, Journal of Applied Meteorology vol. 8 pp. 392-400 (1969).
- concludes that "...man's increasing industrial
activities may eventually lead to a global climate much warmer than
Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then an aide to President Nixon, warned that
we needed a monitoring system of CO2 for fears of global warming:
Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Changing Man’s Environment?"
Charles D. Keeling, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, vol 114 no 1 (1970).
SCEP (Study of Critical Environmental Problems), Man's Impact on the Global Environment. Assessment and Recommendations for Action (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1970), p. 12.
"In their concluding conference report, as the first item in a list of
potential problems, the scientists pointed to the global rise of CO2.
Here too effects were beyond their power to calculate. So the study
could only conclude that the risk of global warming was 'so serious
that much more must be learned about future trends of climate change.'"
and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate,"
S. Rasool and Stephen H. Schneider,
Carroll L. Wilson and William H. Matthews, eds., Inadvertant Climate Modification, Report of Conference, Study of Man's Impact on the
Climate (SMIC), Stockholm (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1971), pp. 129, v.
J.S. Sawyer, "Man-made Carbon Dioxide and the “Greenhouse” Effect," Nature 239, 23-26
(1 Sept 1972).
Abstract: "In spite of the enormous mass of the atmosphere and the very
large energies involved in the weather systems which produce our
climate, it is being realized that human activities are approaching a
scale at which they cannot be completely ignored as possible
contributors to climate and climatic change."
Neville Nicholls, 2007:
recent calculations of the likely impact of increasing carbon dioxide
concentrations on global surface temperature, Sawyer concluded that the
'increase of 25 per cent in carbon dioxide expected by the end of the
century therefore corresponds to an increase of 0.6 degrees in world
temperature — an amount somewhat greater than the climatic variations
of recent centuries'.... Considering that global temperatures had, if
anything, been falling in the decades leading up to the early 1970s,
Sawyer’s accurate prediction of the reversal of this trend, and of the
magnitude of the subsequent warming, is perhaps the most remarkable
long-range forecast ever made.
"Despite claims to the
contrary, our understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming
is not reliant on modern climate models and nor is it a modern
Actually, the atmospheric CO2
level increased 13% from 1972 to 2000, as
at the Mauna Loa Observatory.
increased by 0.43°C (at a linear rate of 0.015°C/yr from 1972 to 2000),
by NASA GISS.
(Sawyer used a climate sensitivity of 1.9°C per CO2 doubling.)
Climatic Change: A Program for Action," National Academy of
- page 43: "[changes of mean
atmospheric temperature due to CO2 excess] could, however, conceivably
aggregate to a further warming of about 0.5°C between now and the end
of the century." (Actual warming from January 1975 to December 2000 = 0.44 ± 0.06 °C,
according to the NASA GISS dataset of monthly average global surface tempertures.)
"Climatic Change: Are We on the
Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" Wallace S. Broecker, Science
no. 4201 pp. 460-463, August 8, 1975.
Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the Climate of a General
Circulation Model," Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol 32 no 1 pp 3-15 (1975).
"On the Carbon Dioxide-Climate Confusion," Stephen H. Schneider, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol 32 pp 2060-2066 (November 1975).
Energy and Climate: Studies in
Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences,
Geophysics Research Board.
AIP.org: "The panel of experts, chaired by Revelle, announced that
average temperatures might climb a dangerous 6°C by the middle of the
next century, possibly with a catastrophic rise of sea level. They
recommended 'a lively sense of urgency' for studying the problem."
"Scientists Fear Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate,"
New York Times,
July 15, 1977.
"On present-day climatic changes," M. I. Budyko, Tellus 29 (1977)
ABSTRACT: "The conclusion is made that present-day climate appears to
have changed as a result of man’s inadvertent
impact and this change may be considerably increased in the nearest
The article considers a possibility of using the numerical
of climatic theory to study future climatic changes under the
conditions of increasing influence on climate of man’s economic
of Land Biota and Their Importance for the Carbon Cycle,"
Bert Bolin, Science
vol. 196 no. 4290 pp. 613-615 (6 May 1977).
"Can we control the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?" F.J. Dyson,
Modeling Through Radiative-Convective Models," V. Ramanathan
and J.A. Coakley Jr., Reviews
of Geophysics and Space Physics, vol. 16 no. 4 (Nov 1978).
"Neutralization of fossil fuel CO2 by marine calcium carbonate," W.S.
Broecker and T. Takahashi, in The Fate of Fossil Fuel CO2 in
the Oceans, ed. NR Andersen, A Malahoff, pp. 213–48. New
York: Plenum (1978).
Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment," Jule G.
Arakawa, D. James Baker, Bert Bolin, Robert E. Dickinson, Richard M.
Goody, Cecil E. Leith, Henry M. Stommel and Carl I. Wunsch (1979).
"Technical fixes for the climatic effects of CO2," F.J. Dyson and G.
Marland G, in Elliott WP, Machta L (eds), Carbon Dioxide
Effects Research and Assessment Program, Workshop on the
Global Effects of Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels, US Department of
AIP.org: "In 1980, the prominent geophysicist Wallace Broecker, who had
spoken out repeatedly about the dangers of climate change, vented his
frustration in a letter to a Senator. Declaring that 'the CO2 problem
is the single most important and the single most complex environmental
issue facing the world,' and that 'the clock is ticking away,' Broecker
insisted that a better research program was needed. 'Otherwise, another
decade will slip by, and we will find that we can do little better than
repeat the rather wishy washy image we now have as to what our planet
will be like...'
- Broecker to Sen. Paul Tsongas, 7 April 1980, "CO2 history" file,
office files of Wallace Broecker, LDEO.
"U.S. Study Warns of Extensive Problems from Carbon Dioxide Pollution," Philip Shabecoff, New York Times, January 14, 1981.
Climate: Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee,"
National Academy of Sciences (1983).
Sensitivity: Analysis of Feedback Mechanisms," J. Hansen et al, in Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity,
AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing, Vol. 5., J.E. Hansen, and
T. Takahashi, Eds. American Geophysical Union, 130-163 (1984).
"Global Temperature Variations Between 1861 and 1984," P. D. Jones, T. M.
L. Wigley and P. B. Wright, Nature vol. 322, 430-434 (July 31, 1986).
"Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model," J. Hansen et al, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364 (1988).
Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the
National Academy of Sciences.
Response to Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate
Aerosols," J. F. B. Mitchell et al, Nature 376, 501-504 (10
Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications," James
Hansen et al, Science,
28 April 2004.
"The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus," W. Peterson et al, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1325–1337, 2008.
the period 1965 to 1979, this article found seven articles that
predicted cooling, 44 that predicted warming and 20 that were neutral.
"The Discovery of Global Warming; Bibliography by Year," Spencer Weart, aip.org
"How long ago did scientists suspect global warming might occur from greenhouse gas emissions?" CO2science.org
For reviews, see:
"The Discovery of Global Warming," Spencer Weart, 2008.
"The Discovery of Global Warming: The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse
Spencer Weart, American Institute of Physics (Feb 2011).
Estimates of Cliamte Sensitivity (1896-2006), Barton Paul Levenson (2006).
The Warming Papers: The
Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast,
eds. David Archer and Ray Pierrehumbert, Wiley-Blackwell (Jan 2011).